MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s headline inflation likely slowed for a fourth consecutive month in May, a Reuters poll on Monday showed, backing views that the central bank will hold its benchmark rate while price growth comes down to within its target range.
The median forecast of 10 analysts sees annual headline inflation MXCPHI=ECI in May at 5.90%, the lowest since August 2021, after accelerating last year to levels not seen in more than two decades.
The core index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, is forecast to have slid to 7.39% year-on-year, the lowest since May 2022.
Banxico, as the Mexican central bank is known, kept its benchmark interest rate at 11.25% last month in a unanimous decision which broke a nearly two-year rate-hiking cycle, though it warned Mexico’s inflationary outlook was “complicated and uncertain.”
Meeting minutes published last week showed central bank board members believe the interest rate will need to be maintained at its current level for a while as inflation drops into Banxico’s target range of 3% plus or minus one percentage point.
Consumer prices were forecast to have slipped 0.16% in May from the previous month, while the core index likely rose 0.33%.
Mexico’s statistics institute will release May inflation data on Thursday.
(Reporting by Noe Torres; additional reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Writing by Kylie Madry; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
