By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, June 17 (Reuters) – Sinking crude prices on news that Iranian fuel may soon hit global markets heralded inflation relief and pushed bond yields lower on Wednesday, while stocks and currencies were quieter ahead of Kevin Warsh’s debut meeting as Federal Reserve chair.
Brent crude futures have dived below $80 and are down more than one-third from peaks after reports the U.S. will waive sanctions on Iranian oil, under the deal to end the war.
The prospect of extra supply added to optimism on the resumption of Mideast exports and helped push yields on U.S. Treasuries lower along with a rally in global bonds, even as the conflict has drained strategic oil reserves.
“Iran’s total exports could approach around the equivalent of 2% of global demand,” said Luka Belobrajdic, an economist at Westpac, though he cautioned any sanctions relief is unlikely to be immediate and would depend on the durability of peace.
Ten-year Japanese yields fell four basis points to 2.61% and 10-year Australian yields almost 6 bps to 4.78%.
Few details of the U.S.-Iran agreement, due to be signed on Friday, have been publicly confirmed and a three-month stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz has U.S. oil reserves at their lowest since 1983.
Wall Street futures were slightly higher in Asia trade, while FTSE futures and European futures slipped 0.2%.
Chipmaker-heavy markets in Tokyo and South Korea shrugged off a negative lead from U.S. selling in semiconductor shares overnight, though a 1.7% fall for Taiwan’s TSMC dragged Taiwan’s benchmark 1% lower.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was broadly flat and in China, AI gains offset sagging consumer stocks in the wake of weak retail sales data.
FED ON HOLD, WARSH IN FOCUS
Traders are waiting to see how Warsh walks the line between his dovish president and markets, which expect a hike this year, and the anticipation has broadly held the dollar in stasis.
The euro has firmed only a little this week, to hover around $1.16. Tuesday’s expected rate hike in Japan failed to lift the yen, though the downside was protected by the risk of official intervention, holding it at 160.3 to the dollar.
A change in the Fed funds rate is unlikely so the focus is on the press conference, Warsh’s vote and committee members’ projections, which in March showed most expected to cut rates.
“We expect Warsh to downplay forward guidance, instead advocating patience on policy rates and inflation – leaning dovish relative to market pricing,” said Xiao Cui, senior economist at Pictet Wealth Management.
“If Warsh embraces the possibility of rate hikes and does not push back on market pricing, this could be interpreted as hawkish.”
Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to stay on hold but forecast a hike, while British inflation is seen accelerating to an annual rate of 3% supported by higher oil prices.
Gold, down more than 20% from January peaks, has bounced strongly from support around $4,000 an ounce and bought $4,300 an ounce on Wednesday, and bitcoin has likewise found support above $64,000 and traded just shy of $65,900.
(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
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