By Dan Catchpole
SEATTLE, Oct 5 (Reuters) – Boeing’s won the contract for the US Navy’s next-generation fighter due to years of investment, decades of experience building carrier-based jets and a design approach that closely matched the Pentagon’s push for easier-to-upgrade aircraft, according to people familiar with the competition.
Last week’s win marks Boeing’s second major fighter jet victory after securing the Air Force’s F-47 program last year. The aerospace company bested rivals Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman for the Navy’s F/A-XX fighter contract, worth more than $20 billion in its initial development phase.
The victories give the company’s defense, space and security division an opportunity to turn the corner on years of costly overruns, delays on military aircraft programs and the high-profile setbacks of its Starliner spacecraft.
“Now all of a sudden, it controls the next half century and beyond of US tactical aircraft,” said Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory. “There’s nothing like that in history.”
The Pentagon required competitors for the F-47 and F/A-XX programs — Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman — to use common design standards to make later upgrades and modifications easier, in order to respond quickly to changing technology and evolving threats.
“All the industry players did what they were supposed to, but there were varying degrees of embrace and enthusiasm,” said a former Pentagon official familiar with the competitions. “Boeing’s embrace was effective.”
The company also distinguished itself through its use of digital design tools, making it easier for engineers, military officials and maintainers to test changes and refine the aircraft during development, the official said.
The Pentagon and Lockheed Martin declined to comment.
Northrop Grumman said in a statement that it “offered a highly survivable, digitally advanced sixth-generation fighter” in the F/A-XX competition, and it has “requested a debriefing from the US Navy” on the selection process and award decision, a requirement for appealing the Pentagon’s decision.
NO GUARANTEE OF SUCCESS
Winning the programs does not guarantee financial success for Boeing. Several analysts said the outcome will depend heavily on the terms of the contracts, which neither Boeing nor the Defense Department would comment on.
Boeing has lost $20.5 billion on five fixed-price development programs that left it responsible for cost overruns — the KC-46 tanker, T-7 trainer, MQ-25 refueling drone, Air Force One replacement and Starliner programs.
“If it is fixed price, that’s a warning sign,” Aboulafia said.
CEO Kelly Ortberg has said Boeing will not pursue similar fixed-price development contracts in the future, as it tries to leave those expensive mistakes in the past.
Few details about either aircraft have been released. The F-47 is expected to fly in 2028 and enter service in 2029, with the Air Force planning to buy at least 185 aircraft to replace the F-22. Even less is known about the F/A-XX, which is expected to enter service in the 2030s and eventually replace the Navy’s F/A-18 fleet.
While the development contracts are each worth more than $20 billion, the production work could generate hundreds of billions of dollars over the lifetime of the aircraft.
BETTING BIG ON FIGHTERS
After losing the F-35 contract to Lockheed Martin in 2001, Boeing kept its engineering expertise with work on classified projects, as well as F-15 and F/A-18 upgrades. The F-15EX upgrade was considered so good that the Air Force resumed buying the jet years after it had stopped.
After COVID, Boeing spent billions of dollars on new production facilities, engineering capabilities and digital design tools in a bid to win the next generation of US fighter jets.
Boeing argues that developing two advanced fighters in tandem lowers risk due to shared technologies and design features.
“Delivering two advanced fighters in parallel was always our plan, and we invested accordingly,” Boeing Defense CEO Steve Parker said in a statement. Ortberg tapped the veteran of Boeing’s fighter programs to lead the defense division in 2024.
While important differences remain, both the F-47 and F/A-XX are meant to establish air superiority alongside autonomous drones in a potential conflict with China, said Roman Schweizer, a defense analyst at TD Cowen.
(Reporting by Dan Catchpole in Seattle; Editing by Joe Brock and David Gaffen)
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